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CAODC Forecast - Current (2017)

CAODC 2018 Drilling Forecast

Released November 21, 2017 
Read the Press Release

Read the State of The Industry Report: 2017 Review and 2018 Forecast

2018 Total Wells (Western Canada): 6,138*

Quarter

Active Rigs

Fleet

Utilization

Operating Days**

1st26562043%22,845
2nd11361518%10,361
3rd19561532%17,758
4th22561537%19,623
Average 201720061632%Total: 70,587
*Actual
**Calculation based on spud to rig release 
Assumptions: WTI: $52.50/bbl (USD) AECO: $2.35/Mcf (CDN) 11.5 days/well
Wells: 2015-2017
201520162017* (based on 2017 forecast)
DrillingUtil.DrillingUtil.DrillingUtil.
18424%11217%19430%

Wells Drilled

Wells Drilled

Wells Drilled

Rig ReleasedCompletedRig ReleasedCompletedRig ReleasedCompleted
6,199

5,294

4,6273,4486,031N/A

 

Operating Days and Wells Completed
                                                              Operating Days             Wells Drilled             
2015 Actual64,8096,199
2016 Actual43,1844,627
2017 Forecast         69,3536,031
2018 Forecast                         70,587                            6,138                            
2015 vs. 20185,778-61
8.9%1.0%
2017 vs. 20181,233107
1.8%1.8%

 Impact on Employment

 Active RigsDirect JobsIndirect JobsTotal Jobs
Jobs Per Rig-21*124*145
2015 Actual1843,86422,81626,680
2016 Actual1122,35713,91916,276
2017 Forecast      1944,07424,05628,130
2018 Forecast2004,19024,73828,928
2015 vs. 2018       163261,9222,248
 8.4%
2017 vs. 20186116682798
2.8%

*Sources:

-21 direct jobs per rig (CAODC)

-124 direct and indirect jobs per rig (PSAC and Alberta Oil)